2024 marks a watershed moment for the international cannabis market. While describing any year as ‘pivotal’ risks cliché, for this year it’s undeniably compelling: trends long anticipated by the industry have continued to materialize now just at an accelerated pace.
Persistent double- and triple-digit growth has pushed the market to new heights. The fledgling international cannabis trade crossed 100 tonnes in 2023, and volumes in 2024 approached 200 tonnes of traded commodities.
This exponential growth underscores the maturation of the global cannabis industry, steadily compounding into a market of scale. The nascent global supply chain is finally coming of age.
Germany
The European Powerhouse is Booming
Partial adult-use legalization propelled Germany to the forefront of the industry in 2024, thanks to streamlined access to medical cannabis in pharmacies. Imports surged from 31 tonnes in 2023 to an estimate for the entire year of over 60 tonnes, with 20 tonnes imported in Q31 alone. The upcoming election is unlikely to derail this momentum, we anticipate that rapid growth will persevere. Germany is poised to surpass a 100-tonne annual supply run-rate in 2025.
Australia
A Dynamic and Maturing Market
Despite increased regulatory scrutiny, Australia maintained strong growth in 2024. Unit sales soared to 2.87 million in the first half of 20242, nearly doubling from 1.5 million during H1 2023. Updated import figures are not yet available, but they are expected to exceed the 42 tonnes recorded in 2023, even as domestic production rises. Unlike most markets, only 40% of new applications are for flower: extracts such as gummies and vapes each hold close to 10% share.
Israel, France & Spain
Challenges in Key Markets
Not all markets experienced positive momentum in 2024: Israel faced a downturn, with patient numbers declining from 140,000 in January to an estimated 128,000 by December, due to the complex new prescription system. Despite the controversial —and flawed— investigation3 into Canadian imports nevertheless rebounded to 21.5 tonnes, up from 16 tonnes in 2023. France and Spain also underperformed, as both countries excluded EU-GMP flower from their restrictive medical cannabis programs, significantly limiting patient access and market growth.
UK, Poland & Brazil
Emerging Markets Take Shape
2024 has also been the year where emergent import markets have consolidated: notably the UK, Poland and Brasil, but also New Zealand, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Denmark.
The UK market has doubled, with over 40,000 patients now accessing medical cannabis. A recent Cannamonitor report4 revealed that 79% of prescriptions are for flower products, as Canadian products dominate in the highest THC segments.
Online consultations fueled a boom in Poland’s medical cannabis sector, prompting regulators to increase the import quota to 11 tonnes last year, and as high as 20 tonnes in 2025. However, a telemedicine ban5 introduced late in the year may hinder future growth.
Brazil emerged as Latin America’s leader, with over 650,000 patients primarily using CBD oils. The country saw over 2,000 imported finished goods6 and 28 locally manufactured, registered products using imported APIs. A Supreme Court ruling could allow commercial cultivation starting in 2025.
Charting the Path to a Mature Cannabis Industry
The global cannabis industry in 2024 showcased rapid growth and increased sophistication yet still grappled with volatility and uncertainty. The surge to nearly 200 tonnes in international trade was not just a jump in scale—but the sector transitioning from its infancy to a dynamic, albeit volatile, adolescent phase.
However, setbacks in some countries underscore that progress is rarely linear. Setbacks are possible, particularly in the event of regulatory uncertainty: policy shifts can quickly reshape market dynamics. The opposite is also true, as exemplified by German legalization: bold moves are possible, the future belongs to the daring. In the grand scheme of things, much of the cannabis industry’s potential remains untapped; therefore, everything is feasible.
Arnau Valdovinos
References
- https://www.bfarm.de/DE/Bundesopiumstelle/_FAQ/Medizinisches-Cannabis/_node.html
- https://www.penington.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Penington-Institute-Cannabis-in-Australia-2024.pdf
- https://canadiancannabisx.com/canadian-cannabis-navigatingtariffs-global-trade-protectionism/
- https://cannamonitor.com/uk-report/
- https://www.rynekzdrowia.pl/E-zdrowie/TYLKO-U-NAS-Poteznazmiana-ws-recept-na-marihuane-po-pierwszych-30-dniachnowych-zasad,266111,7.html
- https://kayamind.com/anuario-da-cannabis-medicinal-2024
